Wind, Waves, Weather and Boats

[TCS]

Thought if might be cool to start a discussion about boats, waves, wind and weather. I’d be interested in hearing about how seaworthy other boats are and how others judge when not to launch. My surf and weather links are below as well. This is a safety discussion, with winter coming and water temps dropping. Also, If you haven’t seen this description of by the guy whose 35 foot Defiance sport fisher capsized in the mission bay channel a couple of weeks ago, read it for a little reality check.

http://www.bloodydecks.com/forums/inshore-islands-fishing-reports-southern-california-usa/169783-may-save-your-life-real-story-about-defiance-capsizing.html>>



My Boat
A little info on my boat: I paddle a Wilderness Pamlico 145. It’s a sit inside tandem with a front seat that slides back so if you paddle alone you’re in the right position. This boat is for sale for $600 firm if there is someone who likes the pros and doesn’t care about the cons.

Pros
It’s long, flat, stable and fast. Some good things about this boat: Comfort, you can’t beat the wilderness seats. Stability, you’re center of gravity is low and there is never a concern about tipping with a fish on. Room, this thing is like a minivan. Double or single, I can take my kid out fishing, take the wife to a Humphrey’s concert, or rig it for single fishing. Glide, when the water is smooth, I don’t think there is a faster boat. When I take out my daughter, she doesn’t paddle. I can do it alone no problem. >>


Cons
There are essentially two disadvantages of this boat and they both are related to wind and waves. It’s a sit-inside and it has flat rocker. If the surf is knee high or lower I might just get a little splash over the bow. Solid knee high and I’ll be pumping around ten gallons out of the boat when I get past the waves. If I hit a set that is waist high or higher I’m screwed. This summer I timed it wrong on a day when the sets were chest high. The first wave filled the boat halfway and stopped all forward momentum, the second wave filled it the rest of the way. It didn’t sink, just wallowed in the surf with my stuff floating all over the place while I hauled it in through the slop. The second disadvantage is the low rocker. A boat that is very flat will glide will on flat water, but when there is a lot of wind chop and some swell it doesn’t handle as well as a boat with rocker. >>



Played it Safe Today
So here’s what happened today that gave me the idea to start this thread. Since I’ve surfed for a few decades I have a pretty good handle on wind and waves, and I tend to be a little conservative when heading way out there.


I paddled out this morning for the fifth time this week. I have been going for quick morning sessions, off the water by nine or ten. This isn’t a report, but will say I haven’t been catching much. This morning I figured the conditions would be marginal, but felt like going for a paddle, particularly since the rest of the week is going to be out of the question due to weather and waves. The SW wind was blowing most of the night and it was a little choppy, sets were waist high. The paddle through the surf was a pretty close call, I collected about 15 gallons of seawater but got past the sets and pumped in out in about 5 minutes. I didn’t want to go far outside due to the conditions but I figured I would just go right outside the reserve and fish the bottom. Right before the reserve ended the wind picked up quite a bit and the swells were a little bigger and the hair on my neck started to stand up. Not a good sign The little voice in my head was saying telling me that if the wind were to go from 10 knots to 20 along with another foot of swell I could get in trouble. I turned right around with the wind to my back and glided back to the beach. Surfed a wave back in with no problem and was off the water 40 minutes after I launched.

What would you have done?


A Few Tips on Wind and Wave Forecasting
If you’re a surfer or a veteran fisherman you probably don’t need this. But for everyone else, here is where I look when planning when I’ll go out.


Swell:
Swell direction is important when predicting surf at the launch. In the summer, waves either come from the southern hemisphere or from more local wind swell. The southern hemi swell doesn’t get into the launch but the windswell usually does. In winter the swell is from up around the gulf of Alaska or local windswell. These can both get into the launch. >>


Wavewatch: This graph is a pretty good forecast of what swells are coming including direction. http://wavewatch.com/Surf-Forecast-Region.php?RegionID=8 If you click on the wave height graph it expands to show each swell with direction.


SoCal Surf Forecast: Adam Wright, who used to forecast for Wavewatch, writes a good forecast daily. http://socalforecast.blogspot.com/


Stormsurf: The best detailed description of the weather that creates the waves.
http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/forecast/forecast/current.shtml>>


Below is what I look at the night before I paddle out and before I leave the house in the morning. Generally its dark when I leave home so can’t look at the cams.


Torrey Pines outer forecast graph. Some genius at Scripps put together an algorithm to predict the cumulative swell at the Torrey Pines Outer Buoy and overlayed the actual swell at the bouy. The red line is the forecast, blue is actual. This does not show direction If you’ve been watching Wavewatch or Socal Surf Forecast then this serves to tell you how much of the swell is getting into North La Jolla.


http://cdip.ucsd.edu/?nav=recent&sub=forecast&units=metric&tz=UTC&pub=public&xitem=tpo_forecast>>

Then I look at the NOAA forecast discussion, updated three times a day, including at 2:30 am, to see what the winds are forecast to be like: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/sgx/display_special_product_versions.php?sid=SGX&pil=AFD

Then I look at actual winds based in the readings at Miramar. If you scroll down the page you’ll see a reading for each of the last 24 hours. http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/KNKX.html


I you’ll find these tools helpful. I’d be interested in what others are doing. Be safe out there.


Tom